Richard Arnold

AProf Richard Arnold profile picture

Associate Professor School of Mathematics and Statistics

Courses

Teaching in 2018

Qualifications

BSc (Hons), MSc (Canterbury), MSc (Victoria), PhD (Cambridge),

About me

I started out as an astronomer, studying the structure of galaxies and the orbits of stars within them. I moved into statistics in 1995 and have developed interests in a wide range of statistical applications, including some in my original subject of physics. In recent years I have research projects in Reliability Theory, Directional Statistics, Statistics in Geophysics, and Cluster Analysis. I have a developing interest in fisheries research. I have worked in institutes in Cambridge and London in the UK, Leiden in the Netherlands and Statistics New Zealand in Wellington. I started work at Victoria in 2001. I enjoy working on applied data analysis problems, especially where a novel approach is required to analyse the data correctly.

Research interests

In my research I often take a Bayesian statistical approach. My work in reliability focusses on the description of correlated failures in multiple component systems – such as cars and computers – where the failure of one component can induce ageing or failure of other components. In geophysics my interests are in the determination of the properties of earthquakes, and then using those characteristics to infer properties of the tectonic stresses in the earth’s crust. This work in geophysics has led to research into the statistics of oriented objects: earthquakes, stress axes, and crystal orientations – in particular where there are high degrees of symmetry present. In such situations specialised methods of data analysis are needed. In fisheries I am interested in models of population size, and inference from the limited data that surveys and commercial catch reports provide.

External research grants

  • Maori Mental Health: What the figures are saying (2003- 2004) Health Research Council (AI: with Universities of Auckland and Otago)
  • SOFIE Health (2004-2010) Health Research Council (AI: PI Prof Tony Blakely at University of Otago)
  • Earthquake focal mechanism estimation (2007-2008) Earthquake Commission (AI: PI John Townend, SGEES)
  • Monitoring stress in the Taupo Volcanic Zone (July 2008-June 2009) Earthquake Commission (AI: PI Steve Sherburn at Geological and Nuclear Sciences)
  • He Kainga Oranga/Community Housing and Health Intervention Research Programme (2012- 2015) – Health Research Council programme grant (AI: PI Phillippa Howden-Chapman at University of Otago)
  • Cluster analysis for ordinal data (2013-2016) Marsden Fund (Joint PI with Ivy Liu, AI Shirley Pledger)
  • JSPS Invitation Fellowship Programme (2013-2014) Japan Society for the Promotion of Science
  • Reliability Analysis (2014) Waseda Internal Grant B (AI: PI Prof Yu Hayakawa at Waseda University)

Supervision interests

I am happy to supervise students at Masters and PhD level in areas in line with my research interests outlined above.

Current Masters and PhD students

  • Frances Krsinich (PhD) Scanner data and price indexes
  • Roy Costilla (PhD) Clustering Ordinal Data with serial correlation
  • Kimberley Maxwell (PhD) Kahawai in the Motu River – a whole of ecosystem approach
  • Nick Jury (MSc) Probabilistic matching of survey data
  • Mohsen Hajsalehi Sichani(PhD) Modelling Traffic Flows

Past Masters and PhD students

  • Ronnie Hoogerwerf (MSc, Leiden) Axisymmetric models for the Milky Way Bulge (1994)
  • Arend Sluis (MSc, Leiden) The density distribution of the Galactic Halo as traced by Blue Horizontal Branch Stars. (1995)
  • Edith Hodgen (MSc) Cancer Forecasting in New Zealand. (2003)
  • Kylie Mason (MSc) Risking more than Just Money: Problem Gamblingin New Zealand (2005)
  • Johanna Prebble (MSc) Hospital Services Utilisation in New ZealandFindings from the New Zealand Health Surveys 1996/97 and 2002/03 (2007)
  • Nuovella Williams (PhD) Robust methods for analysing Quantitative Trait Loci. (2007)
  • David Walsh (MSc) Directional Statistics, Bayesian Methods of Focal Mechanism Estimation and their Application to New Zealand Seismicity Data. (2008)
  • Cheryl Hefford (MSc) The Patient Specific Functional Scale(PSFS) for patients with upper extremity problems in a musculoskeletal clinical setting: Responsiveness, reliability, and construct validity (2010)
  • Lisa Lankshear (MSc) Oral health in New Zealand : findings from the New Zealand health survey 2006/07 (2010)
  • Ying Li (MSc) Internal Migration in the Survey of Family, Income and Employment (SoFIE) (2011)
  • Xiaomei Li (MSc) Approaches to modelling heterogeneity in longitudinal studies (2011)
  • Zara Rawlinson (MSc) Microseismicity associated with actively exploited geothermal systems: earthquake detection and probabilistic location at Rotokawa and statistical network design at Kawarau (2011)
  • Alison O’Connell (PhD) Underestimating lifespans? Why longevity risk exists in retirement planning and superannuation policy (2012)
  • Ernestynne Walsh (MSc) Measuring shear wave splitting using the Silver and Chan Method (2012)
  • Kylie Maxwell (MSc) Fisheries in the Ngati Kahungnu Rohe, New Zealand (2012)
  • Joe Luo (MSc) Multiple imputation on the Food, Nutrition and Environment Surveys 2007 and 2009 (2013)
  • Kath Large (MSc) Population changes in rattail species on the Chatham Rise (2014)
  • Lisa Woods (PhD) Bayesian Estimation Of A Phenotype Network Structure Using Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo(2015)
  • Sima Rouhollahi Varnosafaderani (PhD) Modelling consecutive failures of repairable systems with applications in warranty cost analysis (2015)
  • Nevil Pierse (PhD, Otago) Statistical causality in participant-unblinded randomised community trials (2015)
  • Daniel Fernandez Martinez (PhD) Mixture nased clustering for the ordered stereotype model (2015)
  • Darcy Webber (PhD) Modelling complexity and uncertainty in fisheries stock assessment (2015)
  • Ruth Pirie (MSc ,Massey) Improving data collection for STI surveillance in New Zealand and examining patterns for sexually transmitted chlamydia infections and testing in the Bay of Plenty, 2003—2007
  • Yuki Fujita (MSc) Including covariates in ordinal clustering models (2016)

List of selected publications

  1. Richard Arnold, Stefanka Chukova and Yu Hayakawa. ‘Failure distributions in multicomponent systems with imperfect repairs.’ Journal of Risk and Reliability 230, 4-17 (2016) [DOI: 10.1177/1748006X15584853 ]
  2. Daniel Fernandez, Richard Arnold and Shirley Pledger. ‘ Mixture-based Clustering for the Ordered Stereotype Model’, Online Computational Statistics and Data Analysis. . 93, 46-75 (2016) doi:10.1016/j.csda.2014.11.004
  3. Claire Castellazzi, Martha K. Savage, Ernestynne Walsh and Richard Arnold. ‘Shear wave automatic picking and splitting measurement at Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand’. Journal of Geophysical Research – Solid Earth, 120, 3363–3384 (2015) [DOI: 10.1002/2014JB011585]Sima Varnosafaderani, Stefanka Chukova and Richard Arnold. ‘Modeling general repairs of a system with a bathtub-shaped failure rate function.’ Proceedings of the Asia-Pacific International Workshop in Advanced Reliability Modelling, Sapporo, Japan, 21-23 August 2014, Suk Joo Bae, Yasuhiro Tsujimura and Li-Rong Cui eds., Boston: McGraw Hill. ISBN 978-986-341-129-1. pp. 474-481 (2014)
  4. Richard Arnold, Stefanka Chukova, and Yu Hayakawa. ‘Warranty Cost Analysis: Non-Zero Geometric Repair Times.’ Proceedings of the Asia-Pacific International Workshop in Advanced Reliability Modelling, Sapporo, Japan, 21-23 August 2014, Suk Joo Bae, Yasuhiro Tsujimura and Li-Rong Cui eds. , Boston: McGraw Hill. ISBN 978-986-341-129-1. pp. 9-16 (2014)
  5. Richard Arnold, Stefanka Chukova, Yu Hayakawa and Ivy Liu. ‘Joint modelling of failure times and severities using fuzzy clustering.’ Proceedings of the Asia-Pacific International Workshop in Advanced Reliability Modelling, Sapporo, Japan, 21-23 August 2014, Suk Joo Bae, Yasuhiro Tsujimura and Li-Rong Cui eds. , Boston: McGraw Hill. ISBN 978-986-341-129-1. pp. 1-8 (2014)
  6. Richard Arnold, Stefanka Chukova and Yu Hayakawa. ‘Failure distributions in multicomponent systems with imperfect repairs.’ Proceedings of the Asia-Pacific International Workshop in Advanced Reliability Modelling, Sapporo, Japan, 21-23 August 2014, Suk Joo Bae, Yasuhiro Tsujimura and Li-Rong Cui eds. , Boston: McGraw Hill. ISBN 978-986-341-129-1. pp. 17-24 (2014)
  7. Shirley Pledger and Richard Arnold. ‘Clustering, scaling and correspondence analysis: unified pattern-detection models using mixtures.’ Computational Statistics and Data Analysis. 71, 241-261 (2014). [DOI: 10.1016/j.csda.2013.05.013]
  8. E. Walsh, R. Arnold and M. K. Savage. ‘Silver and Chan Revisited.’ Journal of Geophysical Research – Solid Earth. 118, 1-16 (2013), [DOI: 10.1002/jgrb.50386]
  9. Richard Arnold and Peter Jupp. ‘Statistics of orthogonal axial frames’ Biometrika, 100, 571-586 (2013) [DOI: 10.1093/biomet/ast017]
  10. Nevil Pierse, Richard Arnold, Michael Keall, Philippa Howden-Chapman, Julian Crane, Malcolm Cunningham and the Heating Housing and Health Study Group. ‘Modelling the effects of low indoor temperatures on the lung function of children with asthma.’ Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health,67,918-925 (2013), [DOI :10.1136/jech-2013-202632]
  11. Simon Anastasiadis, Richard Arnold, Stefanka Chukova and Yu Hayakawa. ‘Multicomponent System with Dependent Failures: Modeling and Simulation.’ IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 62, 286-295 (2013) [DOI: 10.1109/TR.2013.2241152]
  12. Johan Holst, Philipp Oster, Richard Arnold, Michael V. Tatley, Lisbeth M. Næss, Ingeborg S. Aaberge, Yvonne Galloway, Anne McNic h olas, Janet Tyson, Jane O’Hallahan, Einar Rosenqvist and Steven Black. ‘Vaccines against meningococcal serogroup B disease containing outer membrane vesicles (OMV): Lessons from past programs and implications for the future.’ Human Vaccines and Immunotherapeutics 9:7, 1-13 (2013)
  13. Richard Arnold, Stefanka Chukova and Yu Hayakawa. ‘Inference for Multicomponent Systems with Dependent Failures.’ Proceedings of the Asia-Pacific International Workshop in Advanced Reliability Modelling, Nanjing, China, 1-3 November, 2012, H. Yamamoto, C. Qian, L. Cui and T. Dohi, eds. , Boston: McGraw Hill. pp. 9-16 (2012)
  14. Zara Rawlinson, John Townend, Richard Arnold and Stephen Bannister. ‘Derivation and implementation of a nonlinear experimental design criterion, with application to seismic network expansion at Kawerau geothermal field, New Zealand’ Accepted by Geophysical Journal International, 191, 686–694 (2012) [DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05646.x ]
  15. John Townend, Steve Sherburn, Richard Arnold, Carolin Boese, and Lisa Woods. ‘Three-dimensional variations in present-day tectonic stress along the Australia-Pacific plate boundary in central New Zealand.’ Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 353-354, 47-59 (2012), [DOI 10.1016/j.epsl.2012.08.003]
  16. John F. O’Brien, Diana C. Roman, James P. Dixon, John A. Power and Richard Arnold. ‘Multiple causes for non-eruptive seismic swarms at Mt Martin, Katmai Volcanic Cluster, Alaska (2004-2008).’ Journal of Vulcanology and Geophysical Research, Vol 229–230. pp13-22 (2012)
  17. Cheryl Hefford, J.Haxby Abbott, Richard Arnold, and G.David. Baxter. The Patient-Specific Functional Scale (PSFS): responsiveness, reliability, and validity in patients with upper extremity musculoskeletal problems. Journal of Orthopedic and Sports Physical Therapy 42, 56-65 (2012) [DOI:10.2519/jospt.2012.3953]
  18. Richard Arnold, Yvonne Galloway, Anne McNicholas and Jane O’Hallahan. ‘Effectiveness of a vaccination programme for an epidemic of Meningococcal B in New Zealand’ Vaccine 29 7100-7106 [DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2011.06.120] (2011)
  19. Cheryl Hefford, J. Haxby Abbott, G. David Baxter and Richard Arnold. ‘Outcome measurement in clinical practice: Practical and theoretical issues for health related quality of life (HRQOL) questionnaires‘ Physiotherapy Reviews 16, 155-167 (2011) [DOI: DOI 10.1179/1743288X11Y.0000000004]
  20. Diana C. Roman, Martha K. Savage, Richard Arnold, Joan L. Latchman, and Silvio De Angelis. ‘Analysis and forward modeling of seismic anisotropy during the ongoing eruption of the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat (1996-2007).’ Journal of Geophysical Research – Solid Earth, 116, No. B3, B03201 [DOI: 10.1029/2010JB007667] (2011)
  21. Richard Arnold, Yu Hayakawa and Paul Yip. ‘Capture-recapture estimation using finite mixtures of arbitrary dimension.’ Biometrics 66 644-655 [doi: 10.1111/j.1541-0420.2009.01289.x] (2010)
  22. Paul Young and Richard Arnold. ‘Intensive Care Triage in Australia and New Zealand’ New Zealand Medical Journal. 123, No 1136 (2010) 14pp. http://www.nzma.org.nz/journal/abstract.php?id=4153
  23. Simon Anastasiadis, Richard Arnold, Stefanka Chukova and Yu Hayakawa. ‘Failures in Multicomponent Systems.’ Proceedings of the Asia-Pacific International Workshop in Advanced Reliability Modelling, Wellington, New Zealand, December 2-4, 2010, S. Chukova, J. Haywood and T. Dohi eds., Boston: McGraw Hill. p. 9-16 (2010)

Courses

Teaching in 2018