Modelling future floods to protect Mirumiru marae
Master's in Physical Geography student Raiatea Barlow-Kameta (Ngāitai, Ngāti Pikiao, Ngāti Maniapoto, Waikato-Tainui and Whakatōhea) is using flooding models to help Marokopa village and nearby Mirumiru marae prepare for the impacts of climate change.
Both marae and settlement are at risk of flooding and erosion due to the nearby river and ocean, a situation facing many marae across Aotearoa New Zealand.
“After completing my undergraduate degree in geology, I wanted to study climate change during my Master’s, but I wanted to focus on issues happening in the present day,” Raiatea says. “I saw the devastation caused by recent flooding in New Zealand and realised I could use my research to help address something that causes extreme environmental and economic destruction, as well as help my iwi, Ngāti Maniapoto.”
Raiatea says her project is a combination of science and science communication. Consultation with Marokopa locals was a crucial step in creating computer-generated flood models, as the area is otherwise data scarce. Every voice and detail were vital when forming a picture of historical flooding and erosion, she says.
“I hope this project can highlight the importance of using scientific and community knowledge to create useful results and communicate them effectively,” she says.
Raiatea is creating her flooding models using a programme called LUCI (the Land Utilisation and Capability Indicator). One aspect of her models looks at the services that landscapes provide, including flood mitigation and farming productivity.
“These models will help us put plans in place now to prepare for the effects of future floods and erosion, including new land management methods that can improve the function of local ecosystems and make them more resilient to climate change.”
She is also building up a historical record of flooding and data on the land itself. When plugged into the model, LUCI can then predict how future climate change could affect the amount and timing of water passing through the landscape, that is, where future floods might be.
“Analysis has generally been a lot more complex than I thought it would be,” Raiatea says. “I thought this project would be a straightforward process of gathering and interpreting data. But as well as struggling to collect data in some areas, the difficult balance between the social, cultural, environmental, economic, and political impacts of flooding has expanded the scope of the data that needs to be collected and considered when planning climate change adaptation.”
Floods have a significant social impact, Raiatea says, so speaking to people about their personal experiences can provide valuable data on flooding. Culturally, flooding could affect the use of the marae, so that needs to be considered when adapting to climate change. There are visible environmental effects like landslides and erosion, as well as the economic costs of addressing these environmental effects while keeping the land available for human use as much as possible.
There are also political factors to consider, Raiatea says, like the challenges that governments face in collecting data and engaging communities in climate change preparation.
“All earth systems are connected, so adaptation strategies need to reflect this,” Raiatea says.
Raiatea hopes her work will help stakeholders and leaders make better decisions for the environment. She has presented at the annual poukai (iwi gathering of the Kiingitanga movement held at different marae throughout the year), and will be giving an update at the next Marokopa poukai this month. Once she completes her Master’s, she hopes to engage with communities using hydrological or other hazard modelling to help them prepare for climate change.
“We need to prepare now for a changing future,” Raiatea says.