Why New Zealand should ban internal combustion engines

The new Labour-led Government has committed to introducing a zero carbon bill later this year. But how should the aims of such legislation be achieved?

One option is to rely primarily on an expanded and improved emissions trading scheme. This approach will, many argue, ensure a higher price on carbon and this will, in turn, reduce emissions.

Yet recent evidence, both here and overseas, suggests that governments are unwilling to impose a sufficiently high price on carbon to secure a large fall in emissions. If this reluctance persists, other policy instruments—or so-called complementary measures—will remain essential.

Of such measures, perhaps the most effective would be a ban on the sale of all new or imported used vehicles with internal combustion engines. Such a ban could take effect, say, from 2030. Many developed and developing countries have already introduced or are seriously contemplating such bans (see the accompanying table). New Zealand should follow suit.

As it stands, our transport sector accounts for around 18 percent of annual gross greenhouse gas emissions and over a third of carbon-dioxide emissions. Emissions from road vehicles make up over 90 percent of our total transport emissions. Hence, a ban on the sale of new petrol or diesel vehicles would, in due course, considerably reduce our greenhouse gas emissions.

Moreover, New Zealand is ideally placed to accelerate the switch to a low-carbon transportation system. Given current technologies, this implies relying heavily on electric vehicles (EVs).

About 85 percent of our stationary energy comes from renewable sources and this percentage continues to increase. Accordingly, EVs can be recharged in New Zealand with a very low carbon footprint.

A ban of the kind suggested would serve multiple purposes. It would underscore New Zealand's global commitment to substantial emissions reductions. It would help give substance to our claim to be 'clean and green'. It would send a powerful signal to the automotive industry and consumers, thereby altering expectations and decision-making.

Moreover, it would help improve planning in the transport sector by providing greater certainty. In so doing, it would speed up the required investment in a comprehensive charging infrastructure and hasten the transition to a low-carbon economy.

From when should such a ban apply? There is no correct date. Norway's parliament has voted to impose a ban from 2025. But Norway already has a large fleet of EVs and a well-developed charging network. Last year over half of all Norwegian new vehicle sales were EVs or hybrids.

By contrast, New Zealand is many years behind. The former National-led government aimed to have 64,000 EVs on the road by 2021, with a third of the government car fleet being electric by then. But 64,000 vehicles represents a tiny proportion of New Zealand's current 4.4 million vehicle fleet.

New Zealand thus needs more time than Norway to adapt. Also, it will take several more years for the global production of EVs to ramp up, the range of EV models to expand, battery technologies to improve, and the price of EVs, including used EV imports, to become fully competitive with the total range of internal combustion engines.

Accordingly, we suggest that our proposed ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles should take effect from 2030. Such a ban should include both light and heavy vehicles, and both passenger and commercial vehicles. It must also include used imports.

Of course, even with such a ban it will take decades to decarbonise New Zealand's transport fleet. In 2016 close to 40 percent of light vehicles were at least 15 years old. If the current age structure is maintained over the coming decades, it will be mid-century, even with a ban, before most petrol and diesel vehicles are phased out.

There are other steps the government could consider to hasten the required transition in the transport sector. These include greater public investment in the charging infrastructure, additional subsidies for EVs and vehicle conversion premiums, as for instance are offered in France.

It might be argued that the proposed ban is unnecessary. After all, by 2030 most automobile manufacturers will probably have ceased producing internal combustion engines. But a high proportion of vehicles sold in New Zealand are used imports rather than new vehicles. New Zealand must not continue to be a dumping ground for cheap, out-of- date, high-carbon technologies. We must aspire to a better, cleaner future and act accordingly.

Why New Zealand should ban internal combustion engines

This opinion piece originally appeared in The Dominion Post, 20 March 2018.