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Description
In summary, the scenarios were:
- Muddling Through: ad hoc adjustments to current challenges;
- A Technocrat’s Dream: a technically highly-tuned and less politicised version of the present (1997) system;
- Two Tiers: a two-tier system brought about by policy gridlock;
- Power to the People: a reframed health concept, resulting in partnerships across professions and the public, and across local and central government sectors;
- Positively Private and Global: a system driven by the introduction of private health care plans.
This seminar looks back at the extent to which the signals in these scenarios have come to pass, and whether they have been useful for decision-makers. We will also discuss how the scenario technique might continue to be applied to health foresight.
Speaker Bios
Lesley Middleton is a Senior Research Fellow in the Health Services Research Centre and was one of the original authors of the 1997 scenarios.
Malcolm Menzies is a visiting scholar at the Health Services Research Centre. He has held roles at VicLink, the Social Policy Evaluation and Research Unit (SUPERU) and the Commission for Financial Capability.