Panel Session 1

Panel Session One

The first session of the Long-Term Fiscal External Panel was held at Rutherford House, Victoria University of Wellington, on Thursday 30 August. The topic for the first session was Fiscal Framework and Projections.

The panel discussed the requirements for long-term fiscal sustainability, including what is meant by fiscal sustainability, why it matters, and how it can be measured. These issues were deliberated in light of New Zealand’s current fiscal framework, the Public Finance Act 1989.

This session also discussed the Treasury’s Long-Term Fiscal Model (LTFM) including its key underlying assumptions (demographic, economic and fiscal), the preliminary fiscal projections, and the sensitivity of the projections to the underlying modelling assumptions.

A. Session 1 Agenda

B. Session 1 Summary

C. Draft Panel Papers/Presentations:

1. Robert A Buckle and Amy A Cruickshank, "The Requirements for Long-Run Fiscal Sustainability". 

2. Paul Rodway, "Long-term Fiscal Projections: Reassessing Assumptions, Testing New Perspectives".

3. Matthew Bell, "Fiscal Sustainability Under An Ageing Population Structure".

4. Nick Carroll, "Structural Change in the New Zealand Economy 1974-2012".

5. Mario Di Maio, "External Influences on New Zealand's Economic Potential".

6. Geoff Bascand, "Demographic Projections from Statistics New Zealand: Aims, Methods and Results".

7. Christopher Ball & John Creedy, "Population Ageing and the Growth of Income and Consumption Tax  

Above: The Chair, Prof Bob Buckle (Victoria University)

Above: The panel and guests in discussion

Above: Amy Cruickshank presenting "The Requirements for Long-Run Fiscal Sustainability"


Above: Dr Alison O'Connell (Victoria University), Dr Susan St John (University of Auckland) and Mary Holm


Above: from left to right, Prof John Creedy (Victoria University & Treasury), Dr Alison O'Connell (Victoria University), Sir Michael Cullen, Bill Moran (Treasury), Prof Bob Buckle (Victoria University). Behind - Nick Caroll (Treasury).

Above: from left to right at the table, Geoff Bascand (Statistics NZ), Diana Crossan (Retirement Commission), Dr Brian Easton, Dr Susan St John (University of Auckland), Prof Norman Gemmell (Victoria University)


For general enquiries, please contact:

Cherry Chang, Administrator, Chair in Public Finance
Telephone: +64-4-463 9656

For media enquiries, please contact:

Chris Ritchie
Telephone: 021 252 9478