You wouldn’t know it from the New Zealand government’s silence, but things have been getting ugly in the South China Sea. They have got to such a point between China and Vietnam that many of our regional friends worry that regional peace and order is on the line. It’s high time for New Zealand to express its concern about the situation, even if this risks the displeasure of China, now our leading trade partner.
Tensions over maritime territorial claims in Asia have been growing as China’s strength and confidence has expanded. There are three main points of contention and concern.
First, in the East China Sea, China and Japan have been sparring over islands they both claim. We do not know if China and Japan could stop a small conflict from escalating into something worse. If that happened the United States is very likely to get involved.
Second, China has muscled its way to control the Scarborough Shoal, a part of the South China Sea much closer to the Philippines than to the Chinese mainland. Like Japan, the Philippines is an American ally. But it is far weaker. This leaves Washington with a delicate balancing act. It needs to reassure Manila without inflaming Beijing.
Third, China recently moved a drilling platform into waters near South China Sea islands that are also claimed by Vietnam. In the ensuing confrontation, boats have been rammed and water cannons fired. After sometimes violent protests in Vietnam against Chinese businesses, thousands of Chinese nationals left the country for neighbouring Cambodia or were evacuated. The record of conflict between China and Vietnam, including over disputed islands, does not augur well for what may come next.
Given the complexity of these territorial contests it may seem wise for New Zealand to keep its head down. There is little point in Wellington taking a position on the legitimacy of the competing claims on the part of China, the Philippines, Japan and Vietnam. And there is very little in a practical sense that New Zealand could do about these problems. We do not have economic or military resources that would really make a difference.
But New Zealand has been adopting an exceptionally low profile. Last year, China announced the establishment of an Air Defence Information Zone extending into the East China Sea. Australia issued a joint statement of concern with Japan and the United States. While the newly elected Abbott government in Australia was getting criticised in China for getting far too close to Tokyo, the Key government took the silent route, avoiding public comment.
One of the last things New Zealand needs is to be caught up in the heated triangle between Japan, China and the United States. So there is something to be said for this approach.
But in the recent developments between China and Vietnam there is a clear case for a public response. At stake are so many of New Zealand’s interests which it shares with all of its trading partners in Asia. These include the integrity of international law, including the application of the Law of the Sea to maritime claims. They also include the principle of the peaceful settlement of disputes. Questions surrounding the freedom of navigation also come into view.
New Zealand’s Southeast Asian partners have found it hard to adopt a unified view. Reluctant to criticise China by name, they have issued a general statement expressing “serious concerns” and calling for all parties to exercise restraint. A separate statement from Australia’s Foreign Affairs Department was slightly more robust, but it also calls for restraint from all parties in the South China Sea.
It’s time for New Zealand to do something similar. Our continuing silence suggests that the principles that allow for regional peace and commerce are unimportant to us. Saying something certainly carries risks. Beijing might be unhappy with even the most innocuous statement. But as important as our commercial relationship has become, New Zealand needs to be prepared to disappoint China.
The window for New Zealand to do this well and independently is closing fast. It should happen before Prime Minister Key’s June visit to the White House. If New Zealand’s statement of concern came out as a joint New Zealand-United States effort in Washington, it would be too easy to see this as an alliance-style gesture, reducing perceptions of Wellington’s autonomy.
The government should also get this out into the open well before two important visitors come to New Zealand. The first of these is Japan’s Prime Minister Abe who visits in July. That would be an even less satisfactory time for New Zealand to make known its concerns about Asia’s maritime order. And it would likely ruin the chances of a good meeting when China’s President Xi visits New Zealand after the September general elections.
There will be people in Wellington offices, and around the Cabinet table, for whom any such statement should be avoided at all costs. But as a country which has benefited so much from a stable maritime order in Asia, New Zealand has an obligation to speak up when this order is being challenged. That is happening right now. It is time for New Zealand’s government to put its head above the parapet.